Zambia: A Small Market With Big Momentum
Zambia's spirits market is still modest, but forecast growth above 8% a year, a recovering economy and a young urban population make it one of Southern Africa's most promising frontiers.
Zambia will not impress anyone on market size alone. Statista values its spirits market at about $142 million, with around 18 million litres consumed. But its forecast growth, above 8% a year, is among the highest in our African territories, and the conditions behind that growth are improving.
An economy getting back on its feet
Zambia has been through a difficult few years: debt restructuring, a severe drought in 2024 and volatile copper prices. The picture is now brightening:
- The African Development Bank expects growth to recover from 3.8% in 2025 to 5.0% in 2026 and 6.3% in 2027.
- Inflation, at 14% in 2025, is projected to ease to around 9% in 2026.
- Higher copper export earnings are expected to move the current account back into surplus.
The IMF, which reached agreement on the final review of its programme with Zambia in December 2025, points in the same direction. A more stable kwacha and easing inflation matter directly for imported spirits, whose prices are set in hard currency.
Who is buying
Demand is concentrated in Lusaka and the Copperbelt, among a young urban middle class, mining and business professionals, expatriates and visitors. Modern retail chains, many of them South African, have made imported spirits more visible and easier to buy, while hotels, lodges and restaurants serve both business travellers and tourists drawn by Victoria Falls and the national parks.
Taxes and pricing
Zambia applies an ad valorem excise of around 60% on spirits, on top of customs duty and VAT. Pricing must be built carefully, from ex-works to shelf, to stay competitive against regional brands and the informal market.
Small, but easier to lead
In a market this size, a well-chosen brand can quickly become a reference. Listings in a handful of key retailers and venues create visibility across the country, and loyalty forms fast when the importer, the sales team and the brand work closely together.
What it means for independent brands
- Enter early. Building a position now, while competition in the premium tier is still limited, is far cheaper than catching up later.
- Choose the right partner. One committed local importer with good retail and on-trade coverage is worth more than wide but thin distribution.
- Build a clear price ladder. Offer an accessible entry point alongside one or two premium expressions, so the brand can grow with the consumer.
- Train and support the sales team. Product knowledge and in-store activation make the difference in a market where many consumers are discovering single malt for the first time.
Figures: Statista market outlook (market value, volume, growth); African Development Bank, African Economic Outlook 2026 and IMF (economy); PwC Worldwide Tax Summaries (excise).
